Hello, dear friends!
Friday's main news is the NFP report showing employment in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. The dollar after the publication of the news block went on the offensive and strengthens against the major currencies.
At an expected rate of 140,000, jobs, in reality, got 136,000. As a percentage, the discrepancy is small, skeptics expected a stronger fall. At the moment there was some weakening of the dollar, but then it went on the offensive. EURUSD has already fallen below 1.1000, GBPUSD is trying to support 1.2300, and USDJPY is testing resistance at 107.00.
The dollar received strong support from unemployment statistics. It fell to 3.5% with a forecast of 3.7%, which blocked the statistics on NFP.
Friday's important news is gone, so strong movements in the evening are unlikely.
According to EURUSD, we consider sales from the level of 1.0999
Despite the growth of the euro bear forecast is not broken and the goals for it have not yet been worked out. At the end of the week, the termination zone 1.0961-1.0999 has been formed, and it will determine the behavior of the schedule in the near future.
The main scenario for today is to try to break through the upper boundary of this area and form an entry point on the extension. Once secured under the level of 1.0999, you can sell with goals of 1.0961 and 1.0878.
By GBPUSD at the end of the week looking for entry points for sales
Here we see the same as on EURUSD. The GBPUSD pair tested the resistance at 1.2400, failed to break it and eventually rolled back to the area of 1.2300.
We are interested in the termination zone 1.2323-1.2352. There was already an attempt to break its lower boundary, but normal price rounding did not form. We consider two options:
- A support breakdown of 1.2323 with a fastening under it;
- Expansion of the termination zone - you can enter the market after a bad break of resistance by 1.2352.
In both cases, we sell. The first target is 1.2323, then pay attention to the behavior of the chart around 1.2273, 1.2225, and the final target for this movement is at 1.2204.
According to USDJPY we consider both short and long positions
On Thursday there was a sharp rebound from the level of 106.48, its break out at the end of the week is unlikely. On Friday we are working with the termination zone 106.48-106.96, we are interested in the behavior of the schedule at its upper boundary.
We expect the formation of one of the two entry points:
- Sales on expansion - after a false break of resistance at 106.96 can be sold with a take at 106.48;
- Purchase after a true breakdown of the level of 106.96. If after the impulse breakdown there will be a smooth movement to the mark of 106.96 and its retest, you can buy. The global target in this case is at 108.46, and also note the behavior of the chart at 107.30 and 107.90.
Further weakening of the Canadian dollar is expected
Little has changed since yesterday. USDCAD is moving in the range of 1.3309-1.3346 and has not yet worked out the target for long positions. We consider only purchases.
We can get two types of signal for purchases:
- A breakdown of resistance 1.3346 and pinning over it;
- False support breakdown at 1.3309.
On gold we consider options for trading in both directions
The upward correction was delayed, at the time of the review, the XAUUSD chart was trading in the range of 1504-1519, while entering the market early. For trading we are waiting for the formation of one of the following signals:
- Purchases - a breakdown of level 1519 with a fastening over it. Take profit put in the area 1535;
- Sales - a breakdown of the lower boundary of the range 1504-1519 and its retest from below. In this case, we expect to move to 1458.
And a small summary of the signals already worked out:
- USDCAD - October 2 was pinned over the punctured resistance. They didn't get to, but 25-30 points under The safe rule could be taken;
- On the same currency pair there was a signal to buy and on October 4, the same entry point - a breakdown of resistance and consolidation behind it. Recorded a profit of 13 points on safe;
- EURUSD - The signal to enter the market is received when testing the broken support. As in previous cases did not even reach the first take, but on safe closed 17 points of profit;
- The pound was a sales opportunity after the retest of the broken support. The market area is quite complex, but at least 30 points had to be taken.
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