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Perspective of further growth of the dollar is quite dubious. Treasury yield drop to lowest level since 2016 proves the possibility of further weakening of the US currency. Uncertainty about the American-Chinese trade war contributes to the situation.
So far, the dollar is not losing ground relative to the euro and the pound. It's expected that EU and UK central banks will also consider cutting interest rates. As a result, today the pound has dropped to 1.2555, and EURUSD is trading around 1.1268.
The news is also not in favor of US currency. On Wednesday, data on employment change in non- agricultural sector and on activity in non-manufacturing sector turned to be worse than expected.
Today the US is celebrating its Independence Day; as there will be no significant news, a decrease in volatility is expected. Entry points may still appear, but execution can take more time.
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The Australian dollar is headed to all new lows
For the pair of AUDUSD global imbalance is located at 0.7026. The two-month high has been tested recently, and a reversal pattern has been formed in this area. Its total minimum has become an imbalance; the level has already been broken through downwards; as soon as retest takes place, we'll open deals for sale.
For short positions, stop is located at 0.7050, take profits are located at 0.7002 and 0.6953.
The growth of the dollar in pair with yen is limited, looking for an entry point for sales
At the beginning of the week there were several attempts to break through the round level 108.50, but the bears didn't let it happen. As a result, global imbalance has been formed at 108.26; this resistance is expected to work out by the end of the week. Retest of the level hasn't taken place so far; place pending Sell Limit order at this level.
Place stop at 108.53, and take profits - at 107.99 and 107.44.
NZDUSD - opening deals for sale
On Wednesday-Thursday, attempts were made to test recent maximum' area. While approaching the level of maximums, a reversal M-shaped pattern has been formed with a total minimum at 96.94. This level has been broken through downwards today; as soon as its retest takes place, one can open deals for sale.
In case this forecast is executed, it's recommended to place stop beyond the maximum of the reversal pattern at the level 0.6724. Profit is fixed at the marks 0.6664 and 0.6604.
GBPNZD - waiting for a buy signal
The GBPNZD pair has reached its lowest level since mid-February; a reversal pattern has been formed, and an upward movement is developing at the moment. Global imbalance is located at 1.8768, as soon as its retest takes place, it's recommended to open deals to buy.
Stop for such a deal should be located at 1.8697, take profits - at 1.8839 and 1.8982.
AUDCHF - expecting the downward movement to continue
Here, pay attention to the chart's behavior near the level 0.6925. This is a reversal pattern minimum; its retest from below will be a signal for opening short positions.
Stop for this deal is placed beyond the reversal pattern maximum - at the level 0.6951, and take profits - at 0.6899 and 0.6848. Global imbalance was formed outside support segment, so the deal is considered aggressive; the working volume should be reduced by 4 times.
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