Good afternoon, dear friends!
On Thursday, the US were celebrating Independence Day, so the markets were calm, and market volatility was low. During the day, the major pairs were moving in the range of 15-30 pips. On Friday, as soon as Nonfarm Payrolls report is published, the situation is expected to change, and volatility growth is guaranteed.
In general, the dollar is unattractive at the moment from the buyers' point of view. Treasury yield drop to lowest level since 2016 and the upcoming interest rates cut may lead to the weakening of the American currency. On Friday, series of very strong news will be published, which will most probably cause a surge in activity. Pay attention to:
- 17:30 - statistics on employment in US non-agricultural sector;
- 17:30 - unemployment in the United States;
- 17:30 - statistics on employment in Canada;
- 19:00 - data on business activity in Canada.
EURNZD - upward movement is expected
Here, we are interested in the level 1.6834. Two-month low was being tested on Wednesday and Thursday; by the end of Thursday, the chart has chosen the direction, and the imbalance was broken out by a sharp upward movement. At retest of the level 1.6834 one can open deals to buy.
Stop for the deal should be placed at 1.6795, the targets are located at 1.6873 and 1.6595.
Gold - resumption of upward movement is expected
After shallow correction has taken place, there are quite good chances for growth resumption. Buying can be performed after the level 1396.28 is tested. Buy Limit pending orders should be placed at this level.
Profit will be fixed at the levels of 1412.08 and 1443.63. Stop-loss is located no higher than the mark 1380.54.
There are fundamental factors indicating the possibility of gold growth. Since an uncertainty over US-China trade war still exists, the demand for defensive assets may increase in the nearest future.
Gas - resistance at 2,299 is expected to work out
Global imbalance at the mark 2,299 was broken out by a sharp downward movement on Monday; since then a slight increase in gas prices is being observed. The level hasn't been tested yet, so the bearish forecast is still valid - we'll sell as soon as touching the imbalance takes place.
Protective stop-loss should be placed at 2,365. Take profits are to be placed at the levels 2.233 and 2.100.
Sugar - considering buying from the level 12.39
The chart has updated the last week minimum, a reversal pattern has been formed, and the level 12.39 has been broken out by a sharp movement. As required by the rules, the movement was strong, one can perform buying as soon as imbalance retest takes place.
The scenario implies an increase in sugar prices up to the marks 12.55 and 12.86. Stop should be located at the level 12.23.
NZDJPY - buy signal may be generated
After monthly high for this pair has been updated, a downward trend has developed. On Wednesday-Thursday, there was an unsuccessful attempt of growth, followed by formation of a reversal construction with imbalance at 72.18. The level has already been broken out downwards; we are waiting for retest to take place and then will open short positions.
Stop loss should be placed at 72.43, takes profits - at 71.94 and 71.46.
As for Thursday forecasts: AUDUSD and AUDCHF pairs - signals have already been generated, and the chart is moving in the direction of take profits. As for the other pairs – there’s no signal.
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