Greetings, dear traders!
There was no sensational news released on Thursday, so market volatility was rather low. Looks like traders have finally put up with the fact that interest rate cut in the United States will take place in July, and included it into the currency rate. Let's also point out some strengthening of defensive assets which is supported by the lasting uncertainty in regards to trade war.
Thursday news on the USA worth mentioning - is the number of unemployment benefits claims. Statistics turned out to be worse than expected, but this had almost no effect on the dollar’s positions.
On Wednesday, Trump refused to announce any deadlines for entering into agreement with China. He has only mentioned being confident that China would go for the deal. This provides support to defensive assets, in particular the Japanese yen.
On Friday more news is expected, so make sure to take it into account:
- 17:30 - US retail sales data;
- 17:55 - speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney;
- 19:00 - data on the US consumer sentiment index will be issued.
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WTI oil - waiting for growth
Reversal pattern was formed with a GAP; the level of 51,00 has been tested. Global imbalance for this model is located at the mark of 51.56, deals to buy should be opened from this level. For your convenience, it's recommended to place two Buy Limit orders of an equal volume at 51.56.
Place stop at 50.89, and fix the profit in parts at the levels of 52.22 and 53.56. There is no supporting segment here, so we cut the usual lot four times.
EURUSD - priority is given to sales
For this pair one can open short positions from the level of 1.5045. Reversal construction includes no supporting segment, so the signal is not perfect. Imbalance breakout downwards was followed by its immediate retest; one can enter the market as soon as normal price rounding will take place.
If this setup works out, we will sell from the mark 1.5045 with the first target located at 1.5021. The remaining 50% of volume will be closed at 1.4973. Stop for this position should be located at 1.5069.
EURAUD - expecting the downward movement to continue
On Thursday, the annual maximum for this pair was updated, but consolidation above 1.6350 didn't take place; by Thursday evening the chart was approaching the round level of 1.6300. A reversal pattern with a global imbalance at 1.6333 was formed on the pullback from the maximum. This will be a key level for Friday, at its retest from below one can open deals for sale.
Stop for this position is located at 1.6364, and target levels - at 1.6303 and 1.6241. Support segment is present, but global imbalance is not located within the segment, which means the signal is rather aggressive.
Thursday signals’ working out:
- NZDJPY - stop has worked out;
- NZDCHF - stop has been tested, position is still in the market;
- EURCAD - signal to buy has been received;
- EURNZD - half the distance to the 1st take profit has been covered.