Hello, dear friends!
On Tuesday, the US dollar continues to strengthen against major currencies. The euro is trying to gain a foothold above 1.0900, and the British pound at the moment fell to the level of 1.2204.
Key events as of Tuesday evening:
- Boris Johnson is due to send his Brexit proposals to the European Commission on Tuesday. In fact, this is the last chance to reach a compromise by 31th October;
- The Australian central bank has lowered the interest rate, partly due to the US-China trade war. The New York dollar has rewritten a 10-year low;
- There are no signs of a recovery in the European economy, despite the slowdown in the US economy, it still looks preferable.
The main news set on Tuesday has already come out. It remains to wait for the speeches of Mario Draghi (19:45 GMT), it can greatly affect the behavior of EURUSD and other couples with the euro.
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EURUSD - bear outlook is being worked out
Yesterday's forecast is beginning to be realized, the entry point for the sale was, today we are seeing a small upward correction. Entry points are best searched on the M5-M15:
- As part of the growth, the M5 has formed a termination zone, the schedule has broken through its lower boundary and its retest is a signal for sales with the first target at 1.0880;
- At around 1.0880, keep an eye on the behavior of the graph. If you are pinned below this level, you can join Sell or enter the market if you haven't done so before.
Global sales targets are the same: the closing of the gap on a weekly chart - we expect a price in the region of 1.0774 and a move to 1.0500 in case the previous support doesn’t stand.
GBPUSD - sell at retest level of 1.2277
The last couple of days the Briton couldn't break through the level of 1.2277. There are a significant number of buyers' stops, so the bulls defended this support quite strongly.
On Tuesday, a sharp breakdown of the level still took place. Priority is unequivocally given to deals for sale, to enter the market you need to enter the market after testing from below the level of 1.2277. At the time of the review, the schedule had already reached the next important support of 1.2233. From it can start corrective growth, which will give an entry point for sales.
USDJPY - we are waiting for a breakdown of resistance and open deals to buy
On this currency pair the chart is at a fairly strong resistance at 108.46. But on H4 it is clear that the upper limit of the range of 105.04-109.29 has not yet reached, so we give priority to purchases.
The current retreat from resistance is considered temporary. The scenario for the near future involves a breakdown of the level of 108.46, its testing from above and the movement to 109.29, here should be a take-profit.
In favor of this scenario is the strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies.
Expect further weakening of the Canadian dollar
The situation here is reminiscent of what is happening on USDJPY. In September, the chart moves in the range of 1.3137-1.3371, at the moment USDCAD is halfway to its upper boundary.
Recently there was a signal to buy on extension (timeframe H1 and below). At the moment it is too late to buy.
For further growth, keep an eye on USDCAD's behavior at 1.3305 resistance. If it is tested and tested from above, you can buy with a take-profit of 1.3371.
A bearish scenario is being worked out for the NZDUSD
Yesterday we got an entry point for sale, in the near future it is possible to form conditions for a share in Sell:
- With corrective growth, you can sell at 0.6237;
- if the previous signal doesn’t work, we monitor the formation of the break-out zones and enter either on the extension (false breakdown of the upper boundary), or after the breakdown of the lower boundary and consolidation under it.
Expected US rises further in tandem with Australian dollar
On the senior timeframes we see that the lower boundary of the zone 0.6250-1.1011 has not yet been worked out. I estimate the potential of the downward movement at 350-400 points.
On H4 we see that at the time of the review there is a breakdown of support of 0.6676. This level was formed in early August. For sales deals you need to get his retest.
The key support is broken through the gold, we sell it on the retest
The start of the bearish xAUUSD scenario has begun. The support was broken at the level of 1479, immediately after the breakdown reached the first stop zone, from it and began corrective growth.
We expect that it will last up to the mark of 1479, from it it can be sold. Here you can place a deferred order for sale, if you don’t have time to monitor what is happening in the market.