Hello, dear friends,

On Thursday, all attention is given to the ECB meeting and its decision to be made on the interest rate issue. Against this background, the EURUSD pair has dropped below support at 1.1000 for a while.

Big players expect interest rates cut and quantitative easing program resumption to take place. Due to the fact, that the European economy was affected by the US-China trade war, such measures by the ECB seem justified.

We should also mention that an increase in interest in risky assets is observed. China has just waived import tariffs on more than a dozen US goods. It's the first time Beijing has issued such exemptions since the US-China trade war began. President Donald Trump, in turn, said the United States will delay by two weeks a planned increase in tariffs on some Chinese imports. Against this background, a recovery is observed in the Chinese yuan, Russian ruble, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

On Thursday pay attention to:

  • 12:45 CEST - ECB interest rates decision and its statement on monetary policy;
  • 13:30 CEST - data on consumer prices in the United States;
  • 13:30 CEST - ECB press conference and speech by Mario Draghi.

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Expecting the ruble strengthening to continue

In the second half of the day, the ruble in pair with the dollar is approaching a significant psychological level of 65.00. Support zone 65.31-65.66 is broken out, and its lower border' retest can provide an entry point for sales. Place take-profit for short positions at 64.30 and 64.00.

Long positions will be considered only when the chart returns to the area of ​​65.31-65.66. At these points a trading zone might be formed, and in case its break out followed by consolidation takes place, a buy signal will be generated. In this situation, take-profit should be placed at 66.73.

Gold - priority is given to sales

The bearish forecast issued earlier is still valid here. New entry points' formation is likely to occur following an upward correction. There's a high possibility of XAUUSD growth to the resistance zone 1531-1542 and a reversal pattern formation within it. Targets in this case are located at 1500 and 1485.

A reversal might take place above the zone 1531-1542 as well. Sales zone is approaching the recent highs at 1556. Here, one can search for reversal patterns and open trades for sale.

Oil is located within the support area

Brent crude oil has entered the support zone 59.89-60.52. Previously, this zone has been broken out upwards; following the retest small rebound from it has taken place. At the moment the chart is located right in this area.

Two scenarios are considered:

  • buying - recommended only after a reversal construction is formed in the range of 59.89-60.52, which might be followed by the movement to the level of 63.50 with a possibility of local maximum' updating;
  • sales - trading zone formation in the range of 59.89-60.52 and consolidation under its lower border. Profit for short positions should be fixed at 57.72.

Gas - only bullish forecast is considered at the moment

Current drop in natural gas prices is regarded as a correction of the upward trend of recent weeks. Trades for sale are not considered so far.

For buying, one need to wait for the chart to decline to the area of 2.45-2.48 and a reversal pattern to be formed within it. In this case, the first take-profit can be placed at 2.640.